• Risks Associated with Low Doses and Low Dose Rates of Ionizing Radiation: Why Linearity May Be (Almost) the Best We Can Do

    Mark P. Little, DPhil Richard Wakeford, PhD E. Janet Tawn, PhD Simon D.Bouffler, PhD Amy Berrington de Gonzalez, DPhil

    Deterministic and stochastic effects associated with high-dose ionizing radiation (x-ray) exposure have been known for almost as long as ioniz­ing radiation itself (1-3). At lower doses, radiation risks are primarily sto­chastic effects, in particular, somatic ef­fects (cancer) rather than the determin­istic effects characteristic of higher-dose exposure (4-6). In contrast to deterministic effects, for stochastic ef­fects, scientific committees generally as­sume that at sufficiently low doses there is a positive linear component to the dose response—that is, that there is no threshold (4-6). This does not preclude there being higher-order (eg, quadratic) powers of dose in the dose response that may be of importance at higher doses. It is on this basis that models linear (or linear-quadratic) in dose are often used to extrapolate the experience of the Japanese atomic bomb survivors (who were typically exposed at a high dose rate to moderate doses [average, 0.1 Sv]) to estimate risks from low doses and low dose rates (4-6). Most population-based cancer risk estimates are based primarily on the Japanese atomic bomb survivor Life Span Study (LSS) cohort data (4-6). However, evi­dence of excess risks comes from a large number of other studies as well.