2017 Annual Meeting of the American College of Radiology-Moreton Lecture: Forecasting the Futures of Radiology.
J Am Coll Radiol. 2017 Dec;14(12):1524-1529. doi: 10.1016/j.jacr.2017.08.020. Epub 2017 Oct 13. Bauer JC1.
PURPOSE: The traditional forces of change in health care are no longer working as they did in the past. Political gridlock has destroyed Washington's ability to create sensible policy for reforming the medical marketplace, creating chaos for providers. Fortunately, chaos creates opportunity. The idea of creating one's future has never been more relevant and necessary.
MATERIALS AND METHODS: Predicting-the science of extrapolating future values from historical data-is not a valid method for looking ahead when causal relationships that explained change in the past are themselves being redefined (the current situation). Forecasting-the art of estimating probabilities of possibilities-is the appropriate method for anticipating futures when causality is being redefined. With its focus on identifying a range of possibilities, forecasting identifies many different outcomes that are simultaneously possible for radiology.
RESULTS: Health care's new climate is being shaped by four defining trends: 1) revolution in biological science that is shifting caregivers' mission from acute care to disease management; 2) proliferation of information and communications technologies that are transforming the way care is delivered; 3) end of economic growth in the medical marketplace that is reshaping demand for care; and 4) political dysfunction that forces caregivers and their business partners to develop successful futures on their own.
CONCLUSIONS: Radiology 3.0 is nicely aligned with the transformational trends. Staying focused on implementing Radiology 3.0 is supported as the optimal strategy for creating the profession's futures. Diagnostic convergence, establishing a unified diagnostic science with laboratory medicine, is proposed as a complementary initiative.